Q4 2025 Economic Commentary

Navigating through uncertain waters

The global economy is entering a fragile phase, with pressures from weakening labour markets, persistent inflationary forces, and fiscal challenges across advanced economies.

In the US, the picture is increasingly mixed. On the surface, GDP expanded at a healthy 3.8% annualised pace, it’s strongest since 2023, with consumer spending and fixed investment exceeding expectations. However, below this headline strength, forward-looking indicators signal mounting strain. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped to a five-month low in September, and expectations are more pessimistic.