Economic Commentary – Q2, 2024

Goldilocks

Since the start of the year markets have oscillated from excessive optimism of multiple interest rate cuts to concerns that inflation could reaccelerate. As we head into the second half of 2024 the consensus view of US economic data is that growth will moderate but remain stable and inflation will continue to reduce. Whether inflation falls enough to warrant interest rate cuts in the US remains to be seen, but consensus expectations are for at least 1 interest rate cut before year end. Overall, there is a ‘Goldilocks’ view on the US economy, not too hot or cold, just right.