Economic Commentary – Nov 2019

November 15th, 2019, by Chris Davis

The 2019 story so far has been one of political and geopolitical uncertainty leading to a dampening of investment, trade and confidence. Investor sentiment has oscillated between optimism and pessimism dependent upon the tweet, communiqué or vote in proceedings.

Faced with protectionist headwinds, the global economy is slowing and is predicted to grow by around 3% in 2019. Central to weakening growth is the broad based slowdown in manufacturing with the automobile industry in particular dented by new emission standards from the European Union and China. In comparison the services sector has remained robust, helping unemployment rates to remain close to their all-time lows in the UK and US and wage growth at or above inflation. The concern is that the divergence between manufacturing and services has persisted for so long, that it may infect the services sector.

Chris Davis
Chief Investment Officer

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